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Nigeria can emerge Africa’s first $1 trillion economy

FOLLOWING a recent projection by the United States Department of Agriculture that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) will be over $1 trillion by 2030, experts have outlined key factors that the nation’s government and stakeholders must concentrate on for a rapid economic boost.

According to the experts who spoke to The Guardian in series of interviews, stressed that the report which place Nigeria’s GDP three times bigger than South Africa’s current GDP and the combined projected GDPs of Algeria, Egypt and Kenya would only become realistic if the basic developmental challenges are tackled.

One of the experts, who is the Executive Director of African Development Management Network and Adamson Economics Organization, Prof. Kunle Adamson, said given that Nigeria’s GDP in 2015 was valued at above $500 billion, it would only need to grow at a mere 4.73 per cent yearly in order to have a GDP of $1 trillion.

“The Nigerian economy needs to be growing at annual rate of about 15 per cent in order to come close to low level middle income economy in 2030. Now it will take a transformation of the economy from one that is lop-sided, corrupt and government controlled to one which is dynamic, resource efficient and a people-first economy in order to achieve this goal”, Adamson said.

He stressed: “Noting that the population of Nigeria is about 180 million in 2015 and that it may grow at annual rate of 2.5 per cent between 2015 and 2030, then that leaves us with a net annual increment of just 2.23 per cent of the GDP. Assuming that this is non-inflationary, that it represents the real GDP, then by 2030 the annual GDP per capita of the Nigerian economy will only increase from about $2800 in 2015 to roughly $4000 in 2030; which can hardly be defined as a middle class GDP per capita.

“It is not impossible but will Nigeria have the type of intelligentsia class and the political leadership that it needs? That is the big question for all to answer”, the UK base economic expert said.
Noting that the population of Nigeria is about 180 million in 2015 and that it may grow at annual rate of 2.5 per cent between 2015 and 2030, Adamson analysed that that leaves Nigeria with a net annual increment of just 2.23 per cent of the GDP.
“Assuming that this is non-inflationary, that it represents the real GDP, then by 2030 the annual GDP per capita of the Nigerian economy will only increase from about $2800 in 2015 to roughly $4000 in 2030; which can hardly be defined as a middle class GDP per capita”, he bemoaned.

Also another expert who is the Group Chief Executive Officer, United Capital Plc Oluwatoyin Sanni, said the 15 years projection is not a pipe dream from a base of above $500 billion, attributing previous development to collective factor of economic diversification.

“Acordingly, there are key imperatives to leapfrog our growth for us to achieve the target of a trillion Dollar economy by 2030 and the race to be the first African economy to achieve this feat, that is, staying ahead of South Africa in growth.

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